These three components of the stabilizing character of aid can compensate or reinforce each other. Identifying thresholds in aid effectiveness. The 2004 paper used a narrower concept, limited to exports instability and (negative) terms of trade trend.5. Log In. View the profiles of people named Romuald Guillaumond. They show that when the stabilizing character of aid is introduced into the baseline model it is significantly positive, while aid interacted with exports volatility loses its significance in one out of three regressions. Aid volatility may lower and possibly cancel this effect when it is pro‐cyclical with regard to exogenous shocks, and even, but less so, when it is contra‐cyclical and very high compared to other sources of shocks. On the other hand, pro‐cyclical aid is most often associated with a positive stabilizing indicator: over the 137 cases of pro‐cyclical aid only 49 correspond to a destabilizing aid (one‐third), leaving a majority of seemingly “paradoxical” cases (88) where aid is both pro‐cyclical and stabilizing. In regressions (3) to (5) all three components are captured through the indicator of “stabilizing character.” This indicator seems in regression (5) to capture all the dampening effects of aid because the level of aid interacted with exports volatility is no longer significant. As in the previous section, we use both GMM and System‐GMM estimators. This effect of vulnerability on aid effectiveness was captured in a growth regression by a multiplicative explanatory variable (aid to GDP ratio x vulnerability indicator) which was significantly positive. To test this effect would require a move from a medium term (adopted in this paper) to a long term framework. Volatility of Development Aid: From the Frying Pan into the Fire? This is why in this paper we design another concept, which is the stabilizing impact of aid, here measured with respect to exports. T). In this section, we propose a synthetic way to assess whether aid has been stabilizing or destabilizing: we examine to what extent income volatility has been influenced by the average level of aid inflow and the level of its volatility. Learn more. The level of aid is likely to have a stabilizing impact, consistently to what has been found with regard to exports volatility. Lagged income and aid (as well as aid interacted with exports volatility) are instrumented. Consequences of Aid Volatility for Macroeconomic Management and Aid Effectiveness. How Volatile and Unpredictable Are Aid Flows, and What Are the Policy Implications? Exceptions are countries suffering from Dutch disease, which, however, generally occurs only after some delay. Lagged income volatility and initial income are instrumented using twice‐lagged income volatility and initial income. First, we use the generalized method of moments. In subgroups of countries (Africa, Low Income Countries, Least Developed Countries), the same pattern applies, except that in the 1970s the average correlation is negative. This kind of aid volatility should not have a negative impact on growth, because it is likely to protect the growth process of the developing countries vulnerable to external shocks. Aid volatility prosecution may thus be misplaced if aid has a compensatory profile: in that case aid volatility, rather than being a problem, would be a solution. We estimate an equation where income volatility is a function of aid to GDP ratio and aid volatility. Growth volatility and inequality in the U.S.: A wavelet analysis. The previous studies of the factors of aid volatility give information on what should be the appropriate control variables in any estimation of the effect of aid on income volatility, under the condition that they are not themselves affected by aid. View the profiles of people named Ron Guillard. The debate initiated by the influential paper of Burnside and Dollar (1997, 2000) has at least made clear that aid effectiveness is likely to depend on specific features of the recipient country. Aid Volatility and Real Business Cycles in a Developing Open Economy. Business Cycles and Social Spending in Developing Countries: Implications for South Korea’s Foreign Aid Strategy, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9361.2009.00501.x. Use the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. However regressions (3) and (4) suggest that there may be a specific impact of the level of aid in countries facing an instability of exports, distinct from what we have called its stabilizing impact (with respect to exports): the latter depends on the year‐to‐year time profiles of aid and exports (contra‐cyclicality, relative volatility, etc. Log in or sign up for Facebook to connect with friends, family and people you know. The full text of this article hosted at iucr.org is unavailable due to technical difficulties. Thus contra‐cyclicality is always related to the choice of a reference aggregate and of a trend measurement. Some papers rely on cross‐country or panel regressions (the first two quoted above), others on time series for each country, trying to measure factors explaining a conditional variance (Raddatz, 2005). The measure of the vulnerability variable was not the same in the two papers. In section 4, coming back to the stabilizing impact of aid with respect to exports, we use this indicator in growth regressions. In this paper the authors examine to what extent the time profile of aid disbursements may contribute to an increase or a decrease of aid effectiveness. As previously, contra‐cyclicality is measured by the correlation of the cycles of aid and exports.

.

Soho Alcool Prix Intermarché, Inspecteur Des Douanes Temoignage, Google Site, Tableau Html Css Pdf, Support Manette Stadia, Quand Les Hommes Vivront D'amour Bourvil, Crayta Steam, Faucon Millenium Lego 75257 Pas Cher, Lettre De Contestation D'une Facture, Clone Wars Guide For Skippable Episodes, Différence Entre édition Et Collection D'un Livre, Commissariat Paris 15, Clone Wars Dvd Saison 1, Vianney N'attendons Pas Guitare, Attestation Sur Lhonneur Conséquences, Les Visiteurs 5 Date De Sortie, Film Netflix Avec Des Immortel, Se Manifester - Mots Fléchés, Gilles-william Goldnadel Cabinet Avocat, Culture Générale Gendarmerie Sous-officier, New Google Sites Templates, Stadia Site Officiel, Dj Hamida Mp3, Clone Wars Saison 7 Nombre D'épisodes, Buffy Contre Les Vampires Saison 7 Episode 12, Brit Marling Couple, Jordan Basket, Under The Skin Critique, Débat Présidentielle Best Of, Formule De Politesse Anglais Emploi, Journaliste Lci Femme Blonde, Acteur Le Mieux Payé De L'histoire, Colombie -- Wikipédia, Le Vrai Nom De Mariana Dans Catalina, Queen Of The South Saison 1 Resume, Liste De Numéro De Téléphone Suspect 07, Ciel Synonyme, Livre Univers Star Wars, Doctorat Médecine Combien D'année, Mission De La Gendarmerie, Maître Gims Album 2020, Convocation Police Par Téléphone, Paroles Je M'en Vais Cali, Rose Noire Halfeti, Gouvernement Sarkozy 2011, Tiffany Et Raphaël Instagram, Bakken Bears, Médecin Généraliste Formation, Crawling Web, Fortune Chirac, Roger Journaliste, Inscription Universitaire 2020, Raphaël Fils De Florence Kieffer, Telecharger Iso 9001 Version 2015 Pdf, Thanos Acteur Taille, Gav Police, Ou Se Passe Le Concours Gardien De La Paix, Caserne Gendarmerie Saint-claude Guadeloupe, Sujet Concours Sog Octobre 2019, Club Dec Tahiti, Fils à Papa En Anglais, Tintin Au Tibet Film, Comment Dit-on Suédois En Anglais, Ichem Boogy Nationalité, Lingala Traduction, Déclaration Sur Lhonneur Urssaf, L'homme De Constantinople Poche, Bienvenue En Allemand, Qui Est Will Booba, Quartier New York Harlem, Nombre De Poste Aspts 2020, Confectionner Synonyme, Code Du Travail Réserviste, Solde New Yorker,